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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Make Your Predictions For The Midterms (Read 1,711 times)
AuntieLynn11
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Re: Make Your Predictions For The Midterms
Reply #20 - 10/11/18 at 15:44:05
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I followed ALL the major pollsters in 2016 up to and including the first week of November and they were ALL hopelessly wrong...
  
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Naturalized-Texan
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Re: Make Your Predictions For The Midterms
Reply #21 - 10/11/18 at 15:54:59
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Senate:
R - 54
D - 46

House:
R - 240
D - 195
  

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Re: Make Your Predictions For The Midterms
Reply #22 - 10/11/18 at 20:45:21
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Naturalized-Texan wrote on 10/11/18 at 15:54:59:
Senate:
R - 54
D - 46

House:
R - 240
D - 195


but ... but ... but ... where's the blue wave?  You gotta be wrong ... chucky said so.
  
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newt2008
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Re: Make Your Predictions For The Midterms
Reply #23 - 10/12/18 at 00:01:58
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Nox wrote on 10/11/18 at 20:45:21:
but ... but ... but ... where's the blue wave?  You gotta be wrong ... chucky said so.

Schmucky needs to check his toilet bowl for that magical blue wave.

Ms. Borelli
  

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Re: Make Your Predictions For The Midterms
Reply #24 - 10/12/18 at 03:14:31
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newt2008 wrote on 10/12/18 at 00:01:58:
Schmucky needs to check his toilet bowl for that magical blue wave.

Ms. Borelli


Grin

Remember that one with the man in the little boat in the toilet bowl?  There was Chuck U!

Lily003   Grin
  
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Re: Make Your Predictions For The Midterms
Reply #25 - 10/12/18 at 04:56:29
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Red tsunami in both houses. Another suprise blowout like 2016. The polls are mostly way off, just like last time.
  
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Re: Make Your Predictions For The Midterms
Reply #26 - 10/12/18 at 06:51:08
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Senate 54 R
            46 Dem

Congress about the same.
  

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Re: Make Your Predictions For The Midterms
Reply #27 - 10/12/18 at 07:28:59
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If all those who have attended the rallies vote and take just two or three people with them.................I think the polls are wrong. I've had several calls on the home line and I've hung up on every single one of them because I've been too busy working.  I must say the Trump effect on small business has been a big red tsunami!
  
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Re: Make Your Predictions For The Midterms
Reply #28 - 10/12/18 at 07:38:21
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I prefer not to pick exact numbers because frankly it's just a wild guess. Based on a combination of trends, polls, my own opinion...and yes a bit of guessing and gut-feelings thrown in...we pick up seats in the Senate and break-even to a small gain in the House. No blue wave.

Why do I not subscribe to a giant red wave? Because as we know there are lots of stupid people out there who will still vote Democrat for a variety of equally ridiculous reasons. Keep in mind that unlike the presidential election, there is no Electoral College. The midterm is a popular vote scenario. He or she that gets the most votes...wins.

The key issue really can't be assessed in any meaningful way. That is...will Republicans along with fed-up Democrats turn out as they did for Trump? Historically mid-terms garner a lower turnout. The upcoming mid-terms would have to buck that trend to be a giant red wave. That leads me to be a bit more cautious in predicting.
  
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Re: Make Your Predictions For The Midterms
Reply #29 - 10/12/18 at 09:22:00
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newt2008 wrote on 10/03/18 at 13:50:07:
What’s the NYT/538 guy’s prediction?  We know they are super accurate so I’ll go with theirs...

Ms. Borelli


538 shows the House as a Dem Win at 230 - 205.  Bad news if that happens.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

They show the Senate with only two seats as a Tossup.  If we win those two it will only be a 53 - 47 Repub majority.  That is a gain but not like it could have been since we only had 8 up for election this year.
  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/
  

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